Campeonato Brasileiro preview round 38

Will Paulo Baier and Goiás hand the title to Grêmio?

For the final day of the season, we’re in the estádio Bezerrão in the Distrito Federal for São Paulo as they hope to clinch the title against Goiás.

The situation at the top could not be more dramatic. São Paulo will be champions with a draw. But if they lose and Grêmio beat Atlético Mineiro at home, the title’s heading south. On Wednesday, Internacional overcame Estudiantes to become the first Brazilian club to win the Copa Sul-Americana. So, perhaps it could turn out to be a double celebration in the city of Porto Alegre this weekend.

Muricy Ramalho’s men should have wrapped the title up last week in the Morumbi. But São Paulo froze against Fluminense and were lucky to take a point from the match.

São Paulo are in many ways fortunate that this meeting is not in Goiás’ home stadium; the Serra Dourada. Goiás were punished for crowd trouble against Cruzeiro and have been forced to play their recent home fixtures out of the city of Goiânia. On Sunday, the 20,000 capacity stadium will be packed with São Paulo fans but having a superior number of supporters backing them doesn’t always work in the Tricolor’s favour as the last round clearly demonstrated.

Though Goiás have nothing to play for but pride, they could still make a game of it. Last weekend, they came from three nil down to draw 3-3 with Flamengo in the Maracanã. So, everything will depend on whether Goiás are up for this one or not.

The Serra Dourada outfit have been banging in the goals. Since the midway point of the league, Goiás (and Flamengo) have the best attacks with 34 balls hitting the target.

Hélio dos Anjos’ men have also picked up the scalps of some big hitters this season. Grêmio, Palmeiras, Cruzeiro (twice), and Flamengo have all lost to the Goiânia club.

Goiás have been fairly handy at home with 11 wins, 4 draws, and just 3 losses (0-3 Grêmio, 1-2 Sport, 2-4 Vasco).  

São Paulo haven’t lost to Goiás since they went down 3-0 in Goiânia in November 2005. The last five games have produced four São Paulo wins and a draw.

The Tricolor haven’t tasted defeat for 17 rounds (11 wins, 6 draws) but if they perform they way they did against Fluminense, São Paulo may get turned over by Goiás.

Team news: Hélio dos Anjos is without influential front man Iarley who is suspended. São Paulo’s outstanding young midfielder Jean is suspended.

Zé Luis is injured. Richarlyson starts.

Goal average = 2.44 – three 0-0s all in the Serra Dourada = 1989, 1995 & 2007

Kick off: Sunday 7^th December 2008 – 17:00 Brasilia

Venue: estádio Bezerrão, Gama (Distrito Federal)

Ones to watch: Goiás’ Paulo Baier

Elsewhere, Palmeiras take on Botafogo in the Palestra Itália. A win guarantees Palmeiras a top four finish. A draw and Palmeiras need either Cruzeiro or Flamengo to drop points. Cruzeiro are at home to relegated Portuguesa. A win for the Belo Horizonte team will do. A draw and they’ll need to rely on Palmeiras or Flamengo not to win. Flamengo are away at relegation-threatened Atlético Paranaense. Fla need the win and hope that Palmeiras or Cruzeiro drop points. 

At the bottom: a win for Náutico at Santos will secure their Série A status. A point will do it if either Atlético Paranaense or Figueirense fail to win. If Náutico lose, they’ll need to hope that both Atlético Paranaense and Figueirense do not win. Three points will be enough for Atlético Paranaense against Flamengo. A point and they could go down if both Figueirense and Vasco win. Figueirense must beat Internacional in the Orlando Scarpelli and hope that Atlético or Náutico lose or that Atlético draw. Four time Brasileiro winners, Vasco, must beat Vitória away and pray that both Atlético and Figueirense fail to win.

This is likely to be the last preview I do for the site (unless some betting syndicate decides to step in with an offer I can’t refuse haha). From now on, I intend to focus on producing more articles such as Brazil: the talent factory and Why it pays Brazilians to go Dutch, which have proved to be quite popular.

Also look out for my Campeonato Brasileiro 2008 review early next week.

See the Campeonato Brasileiro table and all the fixtures here